A new Fox News poll reveals that Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are now neck-and-neck in Virginia—a state Democrats have comfortably claimed in every presidential election since 2004. This unexpected tie at 48 percent each could spell trouble for Biden’s re-election campaign, raising eyebrows and questions about his grip on what was once considered a secure Democratic stronghold.
Virginia’s political landscape is nothing short of a battlefield this election cycle. Biden, who won the state by a hefty 10-point margin back in 2020, now finds himself in a precarious position. This shift is particularly startling given Virginia’s history of leaning blue in the past two decades. What happened to the supposed “blue wall”?
Breaking down the numbers, Biden still holds sway over certain key demographics—he commands a significant lead among black voters, with 73 percent pledging their support. However, this figure marks an 8-point drop from the 81 percent in 2020. Such a decline, however small it may seem, can be critical in a tight race.
Suburban women and college-educated voters also appear to remain faithful to Biden, with 58 percent and 56 percent support respectively. Yet, Trump’s dominance among white evangelical Christians, boasting an 80 percent backing, points to his unwavering base. The battle for the hearts of independents is even more telling; Biden edges out Trump only slightly, with 45 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. In a race where every vote counts, these slivers of support matter immensely.
And if you thought a tussle between Biden and Trump was complex enough, throw in a few more contenders like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein. In a hypothetical five-way scramble, Biden squeaks past Trump by merely one percentage point. Sure, Kennedy might siphon off some of Trump’s votes, but left-wing leaning voters are likely to drift toward West and Stein, evening the playing field.
This polling data sends a clear message: Virginia is not the fortress for Democrats it once was. Democrat pollster Chris Anderson, co-conductor of the Fox News Poll, succinctly puts it, “Virginia is a must-win state for Biden, so a tight race here is going to require some serious defense from his campaign to hold it.”
To add to the intrigue, Virginia voters seem less pessimistic about the economy compared to other states, which may explain why Trump isn’t gaining a significant advantage on this front. But make no mistake, Biden’s campaign will need to pull out all the stops to maintain control of Virginia.
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