Liberal historian Allan Lichtman, known for his so-called “13 Keys” model that claims to have successfully predicted several presidential elections, found himself on the wrong side of the 2024 election results. Lichtman had confidently forecasted a decisive win for Kamala Harris, going as far as predicting victories in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina. However, Election Day proved otherwise, with President-elect Donald Trump emerging victorious, leaving Lichtman scrambling for explanations.
In the aftermath of his botched prediction, Lichtman was quick to point fingers, blaming a wave of “disinformation” and, somewhat oddly, X (formerly Twitter) owner Elon Musk. Appearing visibly rattled during a livestream with his son as the results poured in, Lichtman repeatedly assured viewers that Harris could still pull off a victory. But as the reality of Trump’s win became apparent, Lichtman retreated from the public eye, reemerging days later to offer a post-mortem of his prediction failure.
Lichtman’s first stop was CNN, where he spoke with Laura Coates about what went wrong. “The keys depend on a rational, pragmatic electorate deciding based on governance,” Lichtman explained. “And we’ve seen the explosion of trends that have existed before but never to this extent.” His main culprit? Disinformation. He pointed directly at Elon Musk, accusing the tech billionaire of being the “director of misinformation.” Lichtman claimed that Musk’s influence through X led to billions of views spreading false narratives about the economy, immigration, and minorities, ultimately skewing voter behavior.
The historian doubled down during a subsequent appearance on NewsNation, blaming unprecedented events for what he called a deviation from “160 years of history.” When host Chris Cuomo pressed him on his failed prediction, Lichtman reiterated his belief that disinformation played a pivotal role. “We’ve always had disinformation,” Lichtman argued, “but it has exploded to an unprecedented degree. Conservative media, podcasters, and particularly Elon Musk have amplified misinformation about everything from the economy to undocumented immigrants.”
The inimitable @AllanLichtman a.k.a. “Election Nostradamus” insists his forecasting techniques would have worked perfectly if only Elon Musk, Fox News and all other conservative media had not spread so much “disinformation.” Pure comedy gold! pic.twitter.com/O0BRiTlb5y
— Dinesh D’Souza (@DineshDSouza) November 14, 2024
Lichtman’s “13 Keys” model, which evaluates metrics like economic performance, foreign policy success, and candidate charisma, has come under intense scrutiny in light of his flawed forecast. Critics have long pointed out the subjective nature of the model, and this election only heightened those concerns. Lichtman’s positive ratings for Harris on economic outlook and foreign policy were wildly out of sync with months of polling data and public sentiment. He also controversially labeled Trump an “uncharismatic challenger,” a claim that many found hard to square with Trump’s enduring popularity and passionate voter base.
By laying the blame at the feet of disinformation and Elon Musk, Lichtman sidestepped addressing the potential flaws in his own methodology. His failure to anticipate the electorate’s rejection of Harris, combined with his insistence that outside forces skewed the results, has put his once-vaunted election model under the microscope. As it stands, Lichtman’s “13 Keys” might need a serious recalibration before 2028 — assuming anyone is still listening.
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