Former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino is not known for sugarcoating reality, and his latest analysis of the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie was as sobering as it gets. Speaking Monday night on Hannity, Bongino laid out three possibilities investigators are now being forced to consider, none of them comforting, and all made more likely by what has not been found.
Bongino explained that the most obvious theory is a traditional kidnapping for ransom. Someone targets a victim, removes them from their home, and demands payment. That scenario is what most people assume when they hear about a ransom note. The problem, Bongino said, is that the evidence normally associated with that type of crime simply is not there.
The second possibility is even messier. Bongino suggested the disappearance could stem from a crime that went wrong, perhaps a burglary or confrontation that escalated unexpectedly. In that case, bad actors might later exploit the situation by issuing a ransom demand for something they did not initially intend. In other words, opportunists piling one crime on top of another, hoping confusion buys them time.
Then came the third option, the one Bongino described as the most uncomfortable. It is the possibility that Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was not a kidnapping at all, at least not in the conventional sense. A medical emergency or non criminal event may have occurred, later misinterpreted or intentionally reframed as something more sinister. Bongino stressed that investigators have to face that scenario because the facts are refusing to cooperate with cleaner explanations.
What is boxing investigators in, Bongino said, is not what they have uncovered, but what they have not. In serious abduction cases, digital and forensic breadcrumbs usually appear quickly. License plate readers catch movement. Cell phone data lights up. Surveillance footage surfaces. DNA or physical evidence shows up early. Days have passed, and none of that has meaningfully materialized.
When that happens, Bongino explained, one of two things is usually true. Either the perpetrators are exceptionally sophisticated, or the story everyone thinks they are dealing with is not the real story at all.
Bongino did not rank the scenarios by likelihood, but he made clear that all remain viable given how little traction the investigation has gained. He also echoed comments from veteran FBI Special Agent Lance Leising, noting that legitimate ransom kidnappings tend to follow predictable patterns. Fast communication. Clear demands. Early proof of life. None of those markers have clearly emerged here.
“At this point, I think we have to consider everything outside the box,” Bongino said, “because whatever is inside the box is not really panning out right now.”
Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Today co host Savannah Guthrie, disappeared earlier this month from her Arizona home. Authorities have confirmed suspicious circumstances, and multiple agencies, including the FBI, are now involved. Savannah Guthrie has issued an emotional public plea, calling the situation an “hour of desperation.”
A purported ransom note tied to the case remains unauthenticated, and a deadline referenced in that note passed Monday night without proof of life. That silence is what worries investigators most.
According to Bongino, this is the most dangerous phase of any missing person case, when assumptions harden and silence misleads. In investigations like this, he warned, believing the wrong narrative can be just as dangerous as having no narrative at all.
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