Sen. Lindsey Graham offered a striking glimpse into what he believes could be President Trump’s next move if a newly proposed Memorandum of Understanding with Iran falls apart. During a Sunday appearance on Face the Nation, the South Carolina Republican suggested that diplomacy is getting one last chance, but warned that the consequences of failure could be dramatic.
Graham acknowledged that the memorandum has serious flaws and admitted he does not expect it to succeed. Still, he argued that attempting diplomacy is preferable to immediately moving toward military action.
“I’d rather try diplomacy than take it off the table,” Graham said. “If you don’t have a diplomatic path through the MOU, then you have to go to war or some other form of coercion. Let’s try this. Let’s try a diplomatic solution. I think it’s going to fail.”
That assessment alone would have generated headlines. What followed was even more significant.
According to Graham, after spending roughly four and a half hours with President Trump last week, he came away convinced that the administration has a much tougher contingency plan waiting in the wings. If Iran refuses to comply or uses the agreement as a delaying tactic, Graham believes President Trump would move aggressively to secure one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.
“If this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force,” Graham said. “The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll charge a fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation.”
He went even further, stating that any Iranian effort to challenge American control would be met with overwhelming force.
The Strait of Hormuz is not some obscure stretch of water. It serves as one of the most critical energy chokepoints on the planet, with a significant portion of global oil shipments passing through it every day. For years, Iran has used threats to disrupt or close the Strait as leverage against the United States, Israel, and America’s regional allies. The possibility of American control over the waterway would represent a major shift in Middle East strategy and global energy security.
Graham also connected the Iran issue to a broader regional vision. He predicted that President Trump would expand the Abraham Accords in 2026 and secure Saudi Arabia’s participation in the landmark agreement.
“We’re going to expand the Abraham Accords in calendar year 2026,” Graham said. “We’re going to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, which is the biggest change in 5,000 years in the Middle East.”
Critics from both parties have already labeled the memorandum an “Obama 2.0” agreement, arguing that any deal with Tehran risks giving the regime breathing room. That concern is understandable given Iran’s long history of deception, proxy warfare, and hostility toward the United States and its allies.
However, supporters of the administration’s approach point to a key distinction. This proposal is being described as a temporary 60-day arrangement rather than a permanent diplomatic settlement. The purpose, they argue, is not to trust Iran but to test Iran.
That difference matters because President Trump’s foreign policy has consistently been built around leverage. His supporters argue that he is willing to negotiate, but only from a position of strength. Unlike previous administrations that often relied on diplomatic assurances, Trump has cultivated a reputation for backing warnings with credible consequences.
Whether the memorandum succeeds or fails remains to be seen. What Graham’s comments make clear is that many within the administration’s orbit view diplomacy as only one phase of a larger strategy. If Iran chooses to violate the agreement or use it as a stalling mechanism, Graham believes President Trump is prepared to respond with measures that would dramatically reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.
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