Republican Sen. Susan Collins has taken a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a new New York Times/Siena poll, adding another twist to a Maine Senate race where recent surveys have pointed in different directions.
The poll, conducted September 15 through September 22, found Collins leading Jackson 49 percent to 46 percent among 619 likely voters. The three-point difference falls within the survey’s 4.9-point margin of error, meaning the poll does not establish a statistically clear leader.
Still, the result represents Collins’ strongest showing in a major public survey of the general election so far. Earlier surveys had shown Jackson narrowly ahead, including a CNN poll in early September that put the Democrat at 48 percent and Collins at 45 percent.
The new numbers are especially notable because Collins is outperforming the broader Republican brand in Maine.
According to the Siena survey, just 32 percent of likely voters approved of President Trump’s job performance. Voters also preferred Democratic control of the Senate by a 55 percent to 43 percent margin. Despite those numbers, Collins reached 49 percent in her own contest.
Ticket-splitting helps explain the difference.
Collins received support from 12 percent of voters who backed Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, while Jackson attracted 3 percent of President Trump voters. Collins and Jackson were also tied at 47 percent among independents, according to reporting on the poll.
The survey also found voters giving Collins an advantage on experience. Fifty-four percent said she would be the more effective senator, while nearly 60 percent believed she would be more effective at bringing resources back to Maine. Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and logger, has emphasized his working-class background and focused his campaign on housing, health care, labor issues and corporate influence.
Advertising has become another major factor in the race. The Bangor Daily News reported that Republican groups accounted for $49.1 million of $83.8 million in advertising reservations made since Jackson entered the contest in late July.
There is also an important timing issue surrounding the Siena poll. Most interviews were completed before publication of allegations concerning federal spending and a Collins campaign donor. No one in Collins’ office was charged, and her office has denied wrongdoing.
And the polling picture remains mixed. Two other surveys released around the same time showed Jackson narrowly ahead, with those differences also falling within their respective margins of error.
That makes the latest Siena result better understood as another snapshot of a competitive contest rather than evidence that the race has decisively shifted.
Collins has demonstrated an ability to attract some voters who otherwise favor Democrats, while Jackson is trying to persuade Mainers that the five-term incumbent has spent too long in Washington.
With multiple recent polls showing small margins in opposite directions, Maine’s Senate contest remains closely divided heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
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