CNN’s own numbers guy just rang the alarm bell for Democrats, and you know it’s bad when even CNN’s lead polling analyst is practically waving a white flag heading into the 2026 midterms. Harry Enten, not exactly a MAGA cheerleader, took a hard look at the polling data, redistricting trends, and historical comparisons, and came to a conclusion that probably made Democrat strategists spill their oat milk: 2026 is shaping up to be a GOP win-fest.
Enten laid it out plain. Back in 2017, before the so-called “Blue Wave” in 2018, Democrats were already building serious momentum. In April 2017, they had a 3-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, and by October, they’d expanded that to 8 points. That momentum helped them sweep up dozens of House seats in 2018 and flip the House.
Now fast forward to this year. Democrats are still stuck at that same 3-point lead they had in April, except now it’s October. No movement. No late surge. No “Orange Man Bad” hysteria driving independents to their side. Just flat, uninspired numbers that suggest Democrats are running on fumes.
Enten’s not sugarcoating it. He flat out said Democrats are “so far behind the pace” compared to 2017, and given how redistricting is playing out, that measly 3-point edge probably won’t be enough to save them. And he’s right. You can’t win races just by relying on weak polling advantages and MSNBC monologues.
The kicker? Republican-controlled states still have room to add seats. Democrat-run states? Not so much. Enten pointed out that places like Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts are already maxed out with Democrat gerrymandering. Massachusetts doesn’t even have a single GOP-controlled district left. You can’t gerrymander your way to more wins if you’ve already drawn the map to look like a DNC Christmas tree.
But Republicans? They’ve got gas in the tank. Texas, Florida, and other red strongholds still have room to redraw lines and pick up more seats. Enten estimated a potential seven-seat gain for Republicans even before factoring in the Supreme Court’s possible changes to the Voting Rights Act.
If SCOTUS guts parts of the VRA, especially the racial gerrymandering components, that could mean even more GOP pickups, potentially 10 to 17 additional seats. That’s not just a red wave. That’s a red tsunami.
Bottom line: Democrats are hoping 2026 looks like 2018, but the data is screaming 2014 instead. Republicans are poised to flip the House right back, and maybe by a margin so wide even CNN can’t pretend otherwise.
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