The Conservative Political Action Conference just wrapped up its latest straw poll in Grapevine, Texas, and if you were expecting a wide-open 2028 Republican primary field, think again. The results look a lot more like a two-man race than the usual crowded circus.
Vice President JD Vance walked away with 53 percent of the vote. That is not a squeaker, that is a comfortable lead in a room packed with some of the most engaged conservative activists in the country. Right behind him was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, pulling in 35 percent. Everyone else might as well have been fighting over spare change. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. each managed just 2 percent, with the rest barely registering.
So what does that tell us? For starters, this is not shaping up to be a wide-open free-for-all. Vance and Rubio together grabbed 88 percent of the vote. That is about as close to a political duopoly as you are going to see this early in a cycle. CPAC voters are not exactly known for being shy about backing outsider candidates, yet here they are consolidating around two familiar names.
Now, the interesting part is how things have shifted since last year. Back in 2025, Vance was sitting pretty at 61 percent. He is still leading, but he has slipped a bit. Meanwhile, Rubio has surged from a measly 3 percent to 35 percent. That is not a small bump, that is a rocket launch. Something clearly changed, and Rubio is benefiting from it.
Names that once had some traction have faded fast. Steve Bannon, who pulled around 12 percent last year, is no longer a factor in this poll. DeSantis dropped from about 7 percent to 2 percent, which is not exactly the trajectory you want if you are eyeing the White House.
It is also worth noting that this poll drew more than 1,600 responses, a record for a non-presidential year. That gives it a bit more weight than your typical early straw poll, even if it is still a snapshot of a very specific audience.
National polling tells a similar story, with Vance consistently leading. Some surveys have him around 50 percent, while Rubio trails but is clearly gaining ground. Other polls show a wider field, but even there, Vance holds a strong advantage.
Of course, it is early. A lot can change between now and 2028. But if you are looking for a hint about where the energy is on the right, this poll makes it pretty obvious. Right now, it is Vance in the driver’s seat, with Rubio closing fast and everyone else trying to figure out how they got left behind.
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