With Election Day right around the corner, Democrats are sounding the alarm over shockingly low turnout, particularly in urban areas across key battleground states. According to a leaked memo from Tim Saler, Chief Data Consultant for the RNC, Democrats are facing a “massive turnout deficit” that could prove disastrous for Kamala Harris’s campaign. While early voting has closed, urban turnout—historically a Democrat stronghold—appears to be lagging, with Trump’s campaign pulling ahead in absentee and early voting across multiple states.
The numbers don’t lie. Data from Democrat analyst Tom Bonier at TargetSmart reveals troubling gaps: Arizona’s urban turnout is down by a staggering 385,285 votes compared to 2020, and female turnout is trailing by 170,011. Meanwhile, rural turnout is on the rise, adding over 14,000 more votes. The story is much the same in other states: Georgia’s urban turnout has plummeted by 153,846 votes, while rural turnout has surged by 171,837. Pennsylvania and Michigan are also showing similar trends, with urban areas far below 2020 turnout levels and rural counties closing in or even surpassing their previous numbers.
Democratic strategists are already expressing concern on the airwaves. Jim Messina, Obama’s former campaign manager, admitted on MSNBC that early vote numbers are “a little scary.” But the real fear is that many Democrat voters, who typically cast their ballots before Election Day, may simply not show up for Harris. As it stands, polls indicate that Trump holds a strong 16-point lead among voters who plan to vote on Election Day—a dynamic that could deliver a serious blow to Harris’s chances if urban and female voter numbers don’t rally in time.
In Pennsylvania, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter warned that Harris will need a staggering 600,000-vote margin over Trump from Philadelphia alone to pull off a win in the Keystone State. But with urban turnout down 381,519 votes compared to 2020, this is looking like a steep hill to climb.
BREAKING: New memo confirms that Democrats are facing a huge turnout issue in the battlegrounds.
PA: Urban turnout is down 381K votes, female turnout is down 450K votes.
WI: Urban down 100K, female down 238K. pic.twitter.com/azDBWGHSx4
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
Even Trump’s critics have acknowledged his Election Day momentum. David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, said on CNN that there’s no guarantee Harris’s supporters will flood the polls tomorrow. Democrats are now banking on a last-minute miracle turnout, but if early data is any indicator, Republicans are positioned to take the lead. For Trump supporters, the message is clear: keep up the momentum, get to the polls, and make sure your voice is heard.
In battleground states, the Democrats’ traditional advantage is slipping, and Republicans appear more energized than ever.
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