Here is something you probably did not see plastered across cable news banners this week. A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows President Trump’s approval rating has climbed back to 50 percent. That is 50 approve, 46 disapprove, a net positive of four points. Not exactly the doom and gloom narrative certain networks have been peddling since Election Day.
The poll was conducted February 17 and 18 among 800 likely voters. Not random people who may or may not know where their polling place is. Not “all adults,” which usually includes people who treat politics like background noise. Likely voters. The kind who actually show up and cast ballots.
That 50 percent approval is particularly interesting because it exceeds President Trump’s margin of victory against Kamala Harris in 2024. According to Newsweek, “After a period of weakness in his approval ratings, President Trump has come back to the 50% level, near to or exceeding his margin of victory against Kamala Harris in 2024.” The poll used a mix mode text and panel methodology with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percent.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was quick to circulate the numbers, and InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery confirmed the findings publicly. Towery is not some fly by night operator. His firm has correctly predicted Trump’s performance in multiple past election cycles. Accuracy matters, even if it is inconvenient.
Meanwhile, the usual suspects in the legacy press are still citing polling averages that paint a much darker picture. The New York Times polling average has President Trump sitting at 41 percent approval. ABC, The Washington Post, and CNN have all highlighted surveys showing him underwater.
So what gives? Methodology. Many of those polls sample registered voters or even all adults. That sounds inclusive and democratic, but it is not necessarily predictive of actual election outcomes or sustained political support. Likely voters are the ones who determine elections. They are the ones campaigns target. They are the ones who drove President Trump back to the White House.
And let’s not forget the base. An Economist and YouGov poll found 93 percent approval among MAGA supporters. Ninety three percent. That is not soft support. That is a political movement that knows exactly what it voted for and is not second guessing the decision a few weeks into a second term.
The media can continue amplifying the lowest numbers they can find. They can keep pretending that President Trump is clinging to life politically. But the data from firms that focus on actual voters tells a different story.
The American people already rendered their verdict in November. Now the approval numbers are starting to reflect that reality. Whether certain newsrooms choose to acknowledge it is another matter entirely.
Leave a Comment