Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw just learned a hard lesson about politics in the Trump era. If you spend years sparring with the MAGA base, eventually the bill comes due. On Tuesday night it did exactly that when Texas state Rep. Steve Toth knocked off the four term congressman in the Republican primary for Texas’ 2nd Congressional District.
For years Crenshaw had a strange relationship with the conservative grassroots. On paper he looked like a solid Republican. Former Navy SEAL, combat veteran who lost an eye in Afghanistan, strong on national security, pro Second Amendment, tough on the border. The résumé checked plenty of boxes. The problem was that the MAGA wing never quite trusted him, and in modern Republican politics trust with that base is not optional.
Toth understood that reality and leaned into it hard during the campaign. He portrayed himself as the candidate who would stand firmly with President Trump and the conservative grassroots, while painting Crenshaw as something closer to the Republican establishment. At one point he compared Crenshaw to a “version of Liz Cheney,” which in today’s GOP might as well be calling someone a Democrat.
The contrast inside the party became obvious as endorsements rolled in. Toth pulled support from the House Freedom Caucus, Turning Point USA, Texas Right to Life, and a long list of Texas lawmakers. Sen. Ted Cruz also jumped into Toth’s corner after what sounds like an uncomfortable airport argument with Crenshaw about whether Cruz was quietly working against him.
According to reporting, when Crenshaw confronted him about it, Cruz fired back with a line that probably didn’t calm the situation much. “If I’m working against you, you’re gonna know it.”
A few days later Cruz endorsed Toth and appeared in a campaign ad saying, “You deserve an unwavering fighter, a Republican who walks the walk.” The ad never mentioned Crenshaw by name, but the message was not exactly subtle.
Crenshaw tried to push back against the idea that he was somehow disloyal to President Trump. In an interview with the Houston Chronicle he insisted his working relationship with the administration was solid.
“My relationship with Trump is good,” Crenshaw said. “I work very closely with his administration. I’m close with Pete Hegseth and John Ratcliffe and Kash Patel, because this is all within my scope too on the Intelligence Committee. We work very closely together with the White House. You’d have to not pay attention to any of that to think I’m not ‘Trump’ enough.”
Apparently, a lot of primary voters were not convinced.
The loss marks a dramatic shift for a district where Crenshaw once looked untouchable. He ran unopposed in 2020 and cruised through the 2022 primary with about two thirds of the vote. By 2024 that support had slipped to roughly 60 percent. This year the slide finished the job.
Money did not save him either. Crenshaw entered the race with a big fundraising edge, but grassroots enthusiasm often beats a fat campaign account. Redistricting also helped Toth by pulling parts of his home turf into the district.
Now Toth heads into the general election against Democrat Shaun Finnie, an investment banker who had no primary opponent. In a district covering much of the Houston area, Republicans still hold the advantage.
The bigger takeaway is what this race says about the Republican Party right now. The base wants fighters who are clearly aligned with President Trump and the populist conservative movement. Candidates who try to straddle that line risk ending up exactly where Dan Crenshaw is today, watching someone else carry the Republican banner into November.
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