Everything is bigger in Texas, including Republican primary knife fights.
What was supposed to be a routine renomination for Senator John Cornyn has turned into a full blown brawl. Cornyn, a four term incumbent looking for a fifth trip back to Washington, is suddenly in a three way slugfest with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt. Early voting is already underway, and nobody is sitting comfortably above 50 percent.
According to Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Paxton is narrowly leading at roughly 32 percent, Cornyn is hovering around 28 percent, and Hunt is pulling about 19 percent. That math practically guarantees a March 3 primary that ends without a majority winner, setting up a May 26 runoff. In Texas, runoffs are not polite affairs. They are turnout wars.
The establishment is nervous. Cornyn even warned supporters in Fort Worth, “If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas.” That is not subtle. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has circulated a memo arguing Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and that Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble.”
Translation, party leadership thinks Paxton is a risk.
Republican strategist Ross Hunt told The Hill, “Folks who have been paying attention to Texas politics have all seen this movie before.” Democrats get excited about flipping Texas every few years, and it usually fizzles. But Hunt added that if Paxton is the nominee, it could give Democrats “some oxygen they wouldn’t otherwise have.”
Democrats are watching closely. On their side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico are battling it out. Crockett has stronger name recognition, while Talarico is seen as potentially more appealing to moderates. They are hoping Republican infighting softens the ground for November.
Hovering over all of this is President Trump. He has said he likes “all three” Republican candidates and has not issued an endorsement. That silence is driving speculation into overdrive. Pollsters argue that every day early voting continues without President Trump weighing in is a disadvantage for Cornyn. An endorsement would likely shift the race immediately, especially in a runoff scenario.
Paxton, for his part, is leaning hard into his MAGA credentials. Despite being impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges and later acquitted by the state Senate, he insists Republican voters remain firmly behind him. Hunt has criticized national Republicans for pouring resources into protecting a 24 year incumbent.
At its core, this race is about more than one Senate seat. Grassroots conservatives see it as a referendum on the party establishment. Party leaders see it as a seat they cannot afford to lose in a cycle where Senate control could hinge on a handful of races.
Texas Republicans have a choice to make. Do they stick with experience, gamble on a fighter with baggage, or roll the dice on a younger congressman? One thing is certain, this primary is anything but routine.
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