In the latest twist of the 2024 election saga, former President Donald Trump’s campaign has received a significant boost from none other than the battleground state of Wisconsin. Once again proving that politics is as predictable as a cat on a hot tin roof, a new AARP poll shows Trump holding a decisive lead over Joe Biden. If Wisconsin were a chessboard, then Trump just checked the king.
Wisconsin, the state that’s seen more political flip-flops than a beach in July, narrowly swung to Trump in 2016 and then to Biden in 2020 by razor-thin margins. Now, it’s back in Trump’s favor, with the AARP poll revealing a 6% lead for the former President. This margin is a significant departure from his 0.77% edge in 2016 and Biden’s 0.63% win in 2020.
The poll, which notably focused on voters aged 50 and over, showed Trump leading Biden 52% to 43%. Among all age groups, Trump’s lead narrows slightly to 5%. The survey included over 1,000 likely voters and captured sentiments following Biden’s less-than-stellar debate performance. Given that 75% of voters aged 50-plus watched the debate and a whopping 94% were aware of it, opinions about Biden’s faltering performance have evidently crystallized. In fact, 59% of these seasoned voters declared Trump the debate winner compared to a mere 16% who thought Biden came out on top.
Bob Ward, a partner at the polling firm Fabrizio Ward, noted that the debate’s impact on voter sentiment in Wisconsin has been noticeable, though not dramatic. “It’s changed this state, not dramatically, but noticeably,” he said, underscoring how pivotal moments can tilt the scales in key battlegrounds.
Wisconsin’s shift is also a microcosm of broader trends. Trump is enjoying a lead in several critical states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. This poll, conducted between November 27th and December 1st, sampled over 4,900 voters and found Trump leading Biden by an average of 4.5% across these seven states.
The reasons behind Biden’s dwindling support are manifold. Concerns about his mental acuity and perceived disregard for the auto industry have alienated some voters. Additionally, a botched media interaction in Pennsylvania didn’t help his cause. During an interview on Philadelphia radio station WURD, a host admitted to accepting pre-approved questions from Biden’s campaign, a move that led to more negative publicity.
As we inch closer to the 2024 election, Wisconsin remains a bellwether state, holding the keys to the elusive 270 electoral votes needed for victory. For Biden, the stakes couldn’t be higher; losing Wisconsin could very well block his path to re-election.
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