There is simply no denying that each time we see new polling being released, it looks like President Trump is doing better and better.
For the first time in 24 years, New Hampshire may go red in a presidential election. According to a new New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll, President Trump is leading Kamala Harris by the slimmest of margins: 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent. It’s a small lead, but significant for a state that Trump has lost twice and where Democrats have won in seven of the last eight presidential elections.
Trump lost New Hampshire by seven points to Biden in 2020, but things are different this time. With only a little over a week until Election Day, this razor-thin lead signals a shift. Trump’s national campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt made it clear that Trump’s campaign has its eyes on New Hampshire as a critical opportunity, stating, “There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory.” Leavitt then urged New Hampshire voters to “keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free” by turning out for Trump, warning that Harris’s “radical liberal” policies would harm New Hampshire and the country.
New Hampshire has always been an unpredictable battleground, but if Trump pulls off a win here, it could have serious implications for Harris’s campaign and the Democrats’ path to victory. Harris has invested considerable campaign resources into the state, a move her team hoped would consolidate the Democratic base. But Trump’s momentum suggests that Harris’s efforts may not be enough. The state’s independent streak—home to the motto “Live Free or Die”—may be swinging conservative as voters weigh economic concerns, tax policies, and government overreach.
The Republican edge isn’t limited to the presidential race, either. The poll also showed Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Joyce Craig, 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent. This combined Republican push is sending a clear message that New Hampshire voters are open to a different direction.
With Praecones Analytica surveying 622 registered voters from October 24-26, the numbers aren’t set in stone, but the implications are clear. Trump’s push in New Hampshire, coupled with a close governor’s race, indicates that the GOP is effectively expanding its battleground map. If the Granite State flips, it would not only break a 24-year Democratic streak but also provide a crucial boost to Trump’s path back to the White House.
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