The 2024 presidential race is turning into a nail-biter of historic proportions, and it’s only getting tighter. Just a few weeks ago, ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight election forecast gave Kamala Harris a modest 58-100 chance of beating President Trump. Now? Trump has overtaken her with a 52-100 shot of winning. With only 18 days to go, this is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in modern history.
So, what’s behind this dramatic shift? According to FiveThirtyEight, it’s all about the polling trends. The difference between Trump and Harris is razor-thin—just 2 percentage points or less in all seven major swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Nationally, Harris holds a narrow 2-point lead, but that’s not much of a cushion, especially considering the bias toward Republicans in the Electoral College. Harris likely needs to win the national popular vote by at least 2 points just to have a decent shot at securing enough electoral votes.
Recent high-quality polls continue to affirm just how tight this race is. An ABC News/Ipsos poll from early October found Harris up by 2 points nationally. Other top-tier pollsters like Marquette University, YouGov, and CBS News give her a slim 2- to 3-point lead. But Trump has his own glimmers of good news: a Fox News poll had him ahead by 2 points, while NBC News showed him with a 1-point lead.
The most significant movement, however, is happening in the swing states. Harris has lost ground in all seven of these key battlegrounds since the start of October. This is where the race will be won or lost, and it’s why Harris’s chances have dropped in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. In American presidential elections, winning the national popular vote doesn’t guarantee victory—you need the Electoral College, and that’s where Trump has been gaining steam.
Of course, with a few weeks left, anything can still happen. In both 2016 and 2020, polls shifted toward Trump in the final weeks by 4 points and 2 points, respectively. If that pattern repeats, Harris could find herself in real trouble.
Bottom line? This race is a toss-up, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the margins this tight, the next two weeks are going to be a wild ride. Buckle up!
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