The political betting markets are increasingly bullish on President Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election. Just a week after the former president edged ahead of Kamala Harris in several swing state polls, the betting odds reflect a growing consensus: Trump is on track to win key states come November 5th.
In Arizona, Trump is predicted to win with a decisive 68-32% margin, while in Georgia, the odds are similarly strong at 64-36%. North Carolina, which has been in the spotlight due to a FEMA disaster relief controversy, also leans heavily toward Trump, with a 63-37% advantage among bettors.
Even traditional Democratic strongholds like Michigan and Wisconsin are showing signs of wavering. In Michigan, Trump holds a predicted lead of 54-46%, while Wisconsin is expected to go his way by a narrower margin of 52-48%. These projections have raised serious doubts about the resilience of the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall.” In Pennsylvania, which many see as a must-win for Harris, Trump leads by a comfortable 55-45%, suggesting his support there is both broad and resilient.
The only state still leaning in Harris’s favor is Nevada, with a slim 51-49% margin. However, even in Nevada, some polls have shown Trump ahead by as much as 5%. Taken together, these numbers suggest that 57% of bettors are now predicting a Trump victory in November, marking his highest level of confidence in the betting markets since Harris launched her campaign in August. In comparison, during his lead over Joe Biden, nearly 75% of bettors thought Trump’s victory was a near-certainty.
Adding to Trump’s momentum, the Yahoo News/YouGov poll has narrowed the national race to just a 2-point difference, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 46%. The polls have been notoriously unreliable in measuring Trump’s support, leading many to believe he’s closer to victory than the official numbers suggest. Political commentator Mark Halperin underscored this sentiment, noting Harris’s struggle to connect with key voter groups. “What’s happening now with Kamala Harris is an experiment,” Halperin said in a recent interview. “Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you in private polling is she’s got a problem now.”
With just weeks until Election Day, the betting markets reflect growing unease among Democrats and optimism among Republicans. As Trump’s odds improve, Harris faces an uphill battle to maintain leads in swing states where discontent with her campaign strategy and messaging appears to be taking a toll. As Halperin put it, “There’s no path without Wisconsin,” and for Harris, that path is looking increasingly uncertain.
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