Tax season is usually the time of year when Americans grit their teeth, pour a stiff drink, and hope the IRS does not ruin their month. This time around, though, something unusual is happening. People are actually looking forward to their refund. And that is not an accident. It is happening because President Trump did what politicians almost never do, he cut taxes in a way that actually benefits the middle class.
With 2026 approaching fast, both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have confirmed that the upcoming filing season is expected to be the biggest tax refund season in American history. Not a press release gimmick, not a vague promise, but a direct result of policy. According to Bessent, the average household could see refunds increase by roughly $1,000 to $2,000. That is real money for families who have been crushed by inflation, rising interest rates, and years of economic malpractice.
The explanation is refreshingly simple. The tax cuts passed under President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill were retroactive. Most working Americans did not immediately adjust their paycheck withholdings when those changes kicked in. As a result, they paid more throughout the year than they ultimately owed. When tax time hits, that overpayment comes back home. As Bessent put it, “we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year.” That is not spin, that is math.
The reporting backs it up. The New York Post quoted Bessent predicting “gigantic” refund checks, especially for working Americans. He explained this on the All-In Podcast while also serving as acting IRS commissioner, which gives him a front-row seat to the numbers. Meanwhile, coverage on Fox News and Fox Business dug deeper into what this means for everyday taxpayers heading into 2026.
Even the Tax Foundation, which is not exactly a cheerleading squad for any administration, agrees. The Tax Foundation estimates that the bill reduced individual taxes by $144 billion for 2025. Outside estimates suggest as much as $100 billion of that could flow directly into higher refunds. The foundation said average refunds could rise by up to $1,000, depending on income and household size.
This is the part that drives Democrats crazy. When working people actually feel policy working in their favor, the talking points fall apart. It is hard to scream about doom and gloom when millions of Americans are opening envelopes with four-figure checks inside.
This is what economic sanity looks like. Lower taxes, more take-home pay, and refunds that actually mean something. The American Golden Age is not a slogan, it is showing up in bank accounts. And President Trump is clearly not done yet.
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