Minnesota’s 2026 U.S. Senate race is shaping up to be considerably closer than Democrats might have expected in a state where Republicans have spent years trying to break through statewide.
A new TechnoMetrica, or TIPP, survey conducted for the League of American Workers shows Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holding a narrow lead over Republican nominee Michele Tafoya. The poll was conducted from August 31 through September 2 among 1,494 registered Minnesota voters, including 1,201 likely voters. TIPP reports a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the likely-voter sample.
On the multi-candidate ballot, Flanagan received 40 percent support while Tafoya received 38 percent. Independent candidate Marisa Simonetti drew 4 percent, other candidates combined for 3 percent, and 14 percent remained undecided. That leaves Flanagan’s two-point advantage inside the survey’s credibility interval.
Translation: Minnesota voters have not exactly mailed this election in.
The numbers are especially notable because Minnesota has been difficult territory for Republicans in statewide federal elections. The state has not elected a Republican U.S. senator since Norm Coleman in 2002, and Republicans have not won a Minnesota statewide election since 2006.
Still, this survey should not be treated as proof that Tafoya has overtaken Flanagan. Earlier polling gave the Democrat a larger advantage. Emerson College’s February 6-8 survey of 1,000 Minnesota likely voters found Flanagan leading Tafoya 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent supporting someone else or undecided. Emerson reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
That makes the September TIPP numbers significant primarily because they suggest the contest has tightened compared with that earlier snapshot.
Both nominees emerged from competitive August primaries. Flanagan defeated U.S. Rep. Angie Craig for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nomination, while Tafoya won the Republican nomination. Tafoya entered politics after a lengthy career in sports broadcasting, including years as an NFL sideline reporter.
The TIPP survey also paints a complicated political environment beyond the Senate contest. According to the pollster’s analysis, President Trump remains unpopular among Minnesota voters, meaning Tafoya’s competitive position cannot simply be attributed to strong Republican numbers at the top of the political landscape.
For Republicans, the encouraging part is straightforward: a Senate seat that has remained out of their hands for more than two decades is producing at least one September poll showing a statistical dead heat. For Democrats, the same numbers provide an obvious reason to treat Minnesota as a competitive race rather than assuming its recent statewide voting history will automatically carry Flanagan across the finish line.
And then there is that 14 percent undecided.
In a race separated by two points, that is not some statistical footnote buried in the spreadsheet. It is a substantial bloc of voters who could determine whether Minnesota sends Flanagan or Tafoya to Washington.
The November election will settle that question. For now, the latest TIPP survey shows a contest where neither campaign has much room for complacency.
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