The Alaska Senate race is still not called. That is the fact that matters, and everything else in this story flows from it.
As of the latest unofficial count on Wednesday night, Nov. 12, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by about 3,975 votes, 121,487 to 117,512. That is 48.7 percent to 47.1 percent, with about 86 percent of ballots counted, according to the Associated Press estimate.
Neither candidate is close to a majority of first-choice votes. If that holds, Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18 will decide the winner. Certification is set for Nov. 25. The next count update is due Friday, Nov. 13.
So no, Peltola has not won. And no, Sullivan has not won.
What Trump said
President Donald Trump declared on Saturday, Nov. 7, that Sullivan had won reelection. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote that Sullivan was leading substantially once the votes for two other candidates were added to his total. “The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT.”
That post is not a result. It is a claim, and the official count does not back it up.
Trump repeated the demand on Tuesday. “Dan Sullivan PLUS Dan Sullivan wins the Alaska Election by thousands of votes,” he posted. “All votes going to the Fake Dan Sullivan, which was done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion, should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!), likewise the votes of the second fraudulent candidate, also put up by the Dems.”
Where the fraud claim comes from
The claim traces back to an Oct. 28 investigation by The New York Times, which reported that operatives connected to Peltola’s campaign had worked to recruit spoiler candidates, including Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher from Petersburg who shares the sitting senator’s name. He holds about 1.7 percent of the vote.
Peltola has strongly denied any direct involvement. Her campaign denies she knew, while her former manager told the Times she was aware. That question is still unresolved. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has also denied coordinating with anyone. The Justice Department filed a federal lawsuit saying the second Sullivan could lead some voters to cast votes for the wrong candidate, and it has sought to block certification if Sullivan loses narrowly.
Separately, FBI agents served Gerald Heikes, a longshot candidate in the race, with a grand-jury subpoena on Saturday, Oct. 31, according to CNN reporting on Nov. 6. The subpoena orders Heikes to appear with records connected to Peltola’s campaign, several political action committees, and other candidates. A subpoena is not an accusation of wrongdoing, and this one does not accuse Heikes of wrongdoing.
Why the first-choice lead does not settle it
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. If no candidate tops 50 percent, the lowest finishers are eliminated and their voters’ second choices are counted. Analyses of ballot-level data have estimated that transfers could leave Sullivan narrowly ahead on the ballots counted so far.
Here is the bottom line. The count is real, the lead is real, and it is small. The fraud claim is a claim, not a proven fact. The ranked-choice count on Nov. 18 is the next real step, and until then, the race is uncalled.
Sources:
- Zark News, Trump Declares Sullivan the Winner in Alaska. The Count Says the Race Is Not Over.
- The Stochastic Parrot, Peltola and Two Dan Sullivans: One Framing Split, No Call
- US News Pulse, FBI Served Alaska Senate Candidate Gerald Heikes With Grand-Jury Subpoena
- Washington Sun, State Judge Denies Peltola Campaign’s Request for Ballot Data
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