Democrats hoping Iowa would become a major Senate pickup opportunity have received a fresh reminder that the race remains anything but settled.
A new Quantus Insights poll released Wednesday shows Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holding a narrow numerical advantage over Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
The survey found Hinson at 47.1 percent, Turek at 45.8 percent and Libertarian Thomas Laehn at 1.7 percent, with 5.4 percent undecided. The 1.3-point difference falls inside the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.8 percentage-point margin of error, meaning the survey does not establish a statistically clear leader.
Still, Hinson finished numerically ahead in every ballot configuration Quantus tested.
When initially undecided voters were pressed about which candidate they leaned toward, Hinson reached 48.5 percent while Turek climbed to 46.6 percent. A separate head-to-head question featuring only the Republican and Democrat put Hinson at 48.9 percent and Turek at 46.7 percent.
That’s close enough to make campaign managers develop a sudden interest in antacids.
The more interesting story may be underneath those statewide numbers.
Hinson holds a commanding 58 percent to 36 percent advantage among rural voters and leads men 52 percent to 40 percent. Turek leads urban voters 58 percent to 35 percent and women 52 percent to 42 percent. Turek also performs strongly among independents, leading Hinson 53 percent to 36 percent with that group.
Party consolidation could become another major factor. Turek receives support from 91 percent of self-identified Democrats, compared with Hinson’s 85 percent among Republicans. Eight percent of Republicans currently support Turek, while 5 percent of Democrats back Hinson.
Neither candidate is particularly beloved, either. Hinson’s favorable rating sits at 42.9 percent compared with 45.3 percent unfavorable. Turek is almost perfectly divided at 38.9 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable. About 22 percent of respondents either haven’t heard of Turek or have no opinion of him, giving voters considerably more room to form an impression of the Democrat during the closing stretch.
Economics is quickly becoming central to that closing argument.
President Trump announced this week that Mesabi Metallics plans a $15 billion steel complex in Iowa. The White House says the project would create approximately 1,750 permanent jobs paying $49 per hour, plus roughly 6,000 construction jobs. Hinson joined President Trump and other Iowa Republicans for the announcement.
Turek, meanwhile, has focused heavily on soaring fuel costs. Both candidates have called for action on gasoline and diesel prices, although they have proposed different approaches. Turek has advocated measures including temporarily suspending the federal gas tax and pausing diesel exports, while Hinson has called for Congress to return to Washington to address fuel costs.
The Quantus poll consisted of 738 interviews conducted through text invitations on September 28 and 29. Its ballot analysis included 714 likely voters after excluding respondents who said they would not vote.
So the latest poll doesn’t settle Iowa’s Senate contest. Quite the opposite.
Hinson has a small numerical advantage, Turek has significant strength among independents, and enough voters remain unsettled to move the result in either direction.
Five weeks out, Iowa is still very much a race.
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